📊 Housing Forecast · September 2026 Data
Dear Rynoh Clients & Prospects,
Each month, we review the latest housing data so your team can plan ahead. In September, home sales slipped again, inventory kept growing, and mortgage rate forecasts moved higher. NAR, MBA and Fannie Mae all lowered their 2026 sales outlooks.
Below are the key numbers and what they mean for your title and escrow operations as we head into the end of the year. As always, Rynoh is here to help keep your escrow accounts secure, compliant and in balance.
Sincerely,
The Rynoh Team
September by the numbers
Market Snapshot
Existing Home Sales
341,000
Down 4.7% from August’s revised 358,000 and down 3.9% from a year ago. The seasonally adjusted annual rate came in at 3.99 million, up 1.5% from August’s revised 3.93 million but still down 2.2% from a year ago.
Inventory
1.6M homes
NAR counted a 4.8-month supply, up 1.9% from August and 4.6% year over year. Zillow tracked 1.39 million active listings, down 1.5% from August but up 2.5% year over year.
Home Prices
$417,500
The national median price rose 1.3% from a year ago, the 39th straight month of annual gains, though the gains keep getting smaller.
30-year fixed rate outlook
Mortgage Rate Forecasts
| Source | 2026 | 2027 | This Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 6.7% | 7.5% | ▲ 2026 raised from 6.5% ▲ 2027 raised from 6.7% |
| MBA | 7.3% | 7.1% | ▲ 2026 raised from 6.8% ▲ 2027 raised from 6.7% |
Total home sales
October 2026 Sales Forecasts
| Source | Year | Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAR | 2026 | 4.14M vs. 4.06M | ▲ 2.0% |
| MBA | 2026 | 4.73M vs. 4.76M | ▼ 0.5% |
| Fannie Mae | 2026 | 4.67M vs. 4.75M | ▼ 1.7% |
| MBA | 2027 | 4.75M vs. 4.73M | ▲ 0.4% |
| Fannie Mae | 2027 | 4.71M vs. 4.67M | ▲ 0.9% |
NAR lowered its 2026 sales forecast this month to about 2% growth, down from the 4% it projected in April. Its chief economist pointed to mortgage rates staying above 7% since late September.
Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Originations Forecast
| Year | Total | Purchase | Refinance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ▲ 5.6% 5.32M |
▼ 1.4% 3.54M |
▲ 22.8% 1.79M |
| 2027 | ▼ 5.8% 5.01M |
▲ 0.1% 3.54M |
▼ 17.6% 1.47M |
The bottom line
What It Means for Title & Escrow Teams
A Slowdown, Not a Stall
All three forecasters cut their 2026 sales outlooks, but the adjusted sales pace actually ticked up in September. Plan carefully and hold off on adding headcount until the picture is clearer.
Expect Longer Timelines
Buyers have more homes to choose from and higher monthly payments to weigh, so they’re taking longer to commit. Plan for longer stretches between listing, contract and closing.
Refis Still Growing
MBA still expects refinances to rise 22.8% in 2026, down from last month’s 36.7% forecast. That still means more payoffs and disbursements moving through your escrow accounts.
Keep Every Escrow Account in Balance
Whether the market speeds up or slows down, Rynoh reconciles your escrow accounts daily and flags issues before they become problems.
Sources: National Association of Realtors (NAR), Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Zillow.