September Housing Forecast

Oct 14, 2026

Rynoh — Home Sales Forecast | SEPTEMBER 2026


2026 Home Sales

(September ‘26 forecast)

  • National Association of Realtors (4.22M existing home sales vs. 4.06M): +4.0%
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (4.75M total home sales vs. 4.76M): -0.1%
  • Fannie Mae (4.69M total home sales vs. 4.75M): -1.3%

2027 Home Sales

(September ‘26 forecast)

  • Mortgage Bankers Association (4.93M total home sales vs. 4.75M): +3.8%
  • Fannie Mae (4.88M total home sales vs. 4.69M): +4.1%

MBA Mortgage Origination

(September ‘26 forecast)

  • 2026: +9.7%. Purchase: -1.3% (3.54M loans vs. 3.59M). Refinance: +36.7% (1.99M vs. 1.46M).
  • 2027: -2.2%. Purchase: +2.4% (3.63M loans vs. 3.54M). Refinance: -10.1% (1.79M vs. 1.99M).

Sources: NAR, MBA, Fannie Mae, Zillow — September 2026 forecasts. | © Rynoh

 

Overview

Let’s talk about the September housing forecast. Sales pulled back noticeably in August while inventory kept climbing, and two of the major forecasters trimmed their 2026 sales outlooks.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales totaled 363,000 in August. That’s down -9.5% from a revised July figure of 401,000 (up from the initially reported 400,000) and down -3.5% from August 2025’s 376,000. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) came in at 3.98 million, down -2.0% from July’s 4.06 million and down -1.2% versus a year ago.

Inventory moved the other way. NAR counted 1.62 million units of housing inventory in August, or 4.9 months of supply. That’s up +3.2% from July and up +5.9% year over year. Zillow tracked 1.41 million active listings, up +0.2% from July and up +3.0% year over year. For title and settlement teams, more homes for sale alongside fewer closings suggests buyers are in less of a hurry heading into fall.

The national median price came in at $429,100, up +1.6% year over year, marking the 38th consecutive month of annual price gains.

On the financing side, Fannie Mae held its 30-year mortgage rate forecast at an average of 6.5% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) nudged its 2026 estimate up to 6.8% from 6.7% last month and projects 6.7% for 2027. NAR’s sales forecast is unchanged, with its next quarterly update due in October.

Current Forecasts

Forecasts for 2026 Home Sales (September ‘26 forecast)

  • NAR: +4.0% (4.22 million existing home sales vs. 4.06 million) – revised April 2026
  • MBA: -0.1% (4.75 million total home sales vs. 4.76 million)
  • Fannie Mae: -1.3% (4.69 million total home sales vs. 4.75 million)

Forecasts for 2027 Home Sales (September ‘26 forecast)

  • MBA: +3.8% (4.93 million total home sales vs. 4.75 million)
  • Fannie Mae: +4.1% (4.88 million total home sales vs. 4.69 million)

MBA Forecast for Mortgage Originations (September ‘26 forecast)

  • 2026 Total Mortgage Originations: +9.7% (5.53 million loans vs. 5.04 million)
    • Purchase: -1.3% (3.54 million loans vs. 3.59 million)
    • Refi: +36.7% (1.99 million vs. 1.46 million)
  • 2027 Total Mortgage Originations: -2.2% (5.41 million loans vs. 5.53 million)
    • Purchase: +2.4% (3.63 million loans vs. 3.54 million)
    • Refi: -10.1% (1.79 million vs. 1.99 million)

Sources: NAR, MBA, Fannie Mae, Zillow — September 2026 forecasts.

Bottom line for title and escrow teams

August was the first month this year where sales fell both month over month and year over year. Inventory kept building, and both the MBA and Fannie Mae now expect 2026 to finish flat to slightly down. That points to a slower fall and a time to run lean, not add staff.

With more listings to choose from, buyers may take longer to commit, which can stretch timelines from contract to closing and leave funds sitting in escrow longer. At the same time, the MBA still expects refi originations to rise +36.7% in 2026 while purchase originations slip. A heavier refi mix means more payoffs, more disbursements, and more activity running through your escrow accounts. Agencies with daily reconciliation, strong escrow controls, and clean reporting will be in the best position to handle whatever mix of purchase and refi closings comes through the door.

Meta description: What does the September 2026 housing forecast mean for closing volume and escrow activity? August sales slipped while inventory kept building…

If you’re duplicating the June post in Divi, the chart module only needs its numbers and labels swapped to match the three charts above. The 2026 chart drops the Zillow bar this month.